
{"id":626,"date":"2009-12-17T10:00:19","date_gmt":"2009-12-17T17:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/briantroy.com\/blog\/?p=626"},"modified":"2009-12-17T10:00:19","modified_gmt":"2009-12-17T17:00:19","slug":"social-media-roi-the-believers-and-non-believers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogarchive.briantroy.com\/index.php\/2009\/12\/17\/social-media-roi-the-believers-and-non-believers\/","title":{"rendered":"Social Media ROI &#8211; The Believers and Non-Believers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a style=\"margin-right:10px;margin-bottom:10px;\" href=\"http:\/\/briantroy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/x_believe.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-668\" title=\"x_believe\" src=\"http:\/\/briantroy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/x_believe-300x300.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"210\" height=\"210\" \/><\/a>It appears the Social Media ROI conversation is heating up &#8211; and predictably it has split into two camps, the Believers and the Non-Belivers.<\/p>\n<p>The non-belivers are adamant that you simply can&#8217;t value conversations. The believers say you can because relationships are valuable. They are both wrong (and right).<\/p>\n<p>Let me try to clarify things &#8211; conversations have zero tangible hard value &#8211; you can&#8217;t put a specific dollar figure on the value of any conversation. In that respect the non-believers are correct. The believers tell you that conversations are valuable because they affect some other valuable thing &#8211; and they are correct (however they insist on pointing to the wrong affected things).<\/p>\n<p>Here is a great example:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/shelisrael\">Shel Israel<\/a> &#8211; who is very bright and who I have immense respect for &#8211; is one of the non-belivers. <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/kdpaine\">KD Paine<\/a> &#8211; of whom I have no previous knowledge &#8211; is one of the believers (at least for the purposes of this post).<\/p>\n<p>Ms. Paine <a href=\"http:\/\/kdpaine.blogs.com\/kdpaines_pr_m\/2009\/07\/yes-we-can-measure-conversations.html?cid=6a00d83451658a69e20128761fbab8970c\">wrote a post<\/a> taking issue with Mr. Israel&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/redcouch.typepad.com\/weblog\/2009\/07\/social-media-the-relations-part-of-pr.html\">assertion from his blog<\/a> that there is value in conversation that can not be measured.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;color:#333333;line-height:18px;\">The way to measure the value of conversations is to first measure the degree to which <a style=\"text-decoration:underline;color:#8b2e2d;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.instituteforpr.org\/research_single\/guidelines_measuring_trust\/\">people trust you<\/a>, and the degree to which your stakeholders are <a style=\"text-decoration:underline;color:#8b2e2d;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.instituteforpr.org\/research_single\/guidelines_measuring_relationships\/\">satisfied and committed to your relationship<\/a>s. Find out just how valuable people think those relationships are. Then start a conversation and measure how much MORE valuable people think the relationship after you&#8217;ve been talking with them awhile.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I think we would all agree that these statements are accurate &#8211; but do they assign hard value to conversations? No, in fact this is simply a list of other intangibles that conversations affect. Ms. Paine lists tangibles (i.e., lowered costs across several functions) but never comes out and says that conversations lower costs in functions x, y and z.<\/p>\n<p>It isn&#8217;t that Ms. Paine is terribly far off &#8211; it is just that she refuses to make a well formed argument that translates to a hard dollar ROI. She simply refuses to connect the dots and commit to a hard dollar outcome from her &#8220;conversations&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, Mr. Israel posits this thought experiment via Tweet:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/briantroy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/screen-shot-2009-12-17-at-9-00-19-am.png\" alt=\"Screen shot 2009-12-17 at 9.00.19 AM.png\" width=\"480\" height=\"254\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/briantroy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/screen-shot-2009-12-17-at-9-00-42-am.png\" alt=\"Screen shot 2009-12-17 at 9.00.42 AM.png\" width=\"480\" height=\"224\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Mr. Israel makes the opposite mistake &#8211; he is essentially telling us that unless you can directly connect an action with it&#8217;s effect you can&#8217;t call it an ROI. If that were true about 85% of corporate spending would stop today.<\/p>\n<p>So, just for fun, I&#8217;ll complete Mr. Israel&#8217;s thought experiment:<\/p>\n<p>First let&#8217;s figure out the investment:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Assume you need 12 pair of pants that cost $125.00 each &#8211; total cost of pants: $1500.00<\/li>\n<li>Pants maintenance (i.e., dry cleaning) costs of $18.00 per week &#8211; total cost of maintenance: $936.00<\/li>\n<li>Total sunk cost for pants (for one year) is: $2436.00<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Now, let&#8217;s talk about the return side of the equation:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Assume an average deal size of $25,000.00<\/li>\n<li>You take 42 &#8220;business meetings&#8221; per year and you currently (wearing pants) convert 62%.<\/li>\n<li>That means you win 26 deals per year @ 25k each &#8211; for a total of: 650k\/year<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Here is where the fun begins:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Let&#8217;s make the conservative (and if you disagree with this being conservative please speak up) estimate that not wearing pants to business meetings would lower your conversion rate by 8%.<\/li>\n<li>Now you only convert 54% of your opportunities.<\/li>\n<li>You now generate 22.5 deals per year at 25k each &#8211; for a total of: 562k<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Net change in outcome metric:<\/strong> <strong><span style=\"color:#ff2500;\">-88k<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>ROI on Pants &#8211; for an investment of $2436.00 you (conservatively) generate an additional $88,000.00 per year. That is a return of 3600%.<\/p>\n<p>Then non-belivers will read this an suggest that there may be hundreds of reasons that you didn&#8217;t win those deals &#8211; and they&#8217;d be right. But that isn&#8217;t the point. The point is that the <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Proximate_and_ultimate_causation\">proximate cause<\/a> of losing those deals was &#8211; with a very high degree of probability &#8211; the fact that you were sitting in the meeting with your junk hanging out.<\/p>\n<p>ROIs are built on <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Proximate_and_ultimate_causation\">proximate causes<\/a> the vast majority of the time &#8211; and that isn&#8217;t a scam, it simply reflects the reality that most of the things we do directly affect input metrics, not our hard dollar output metrics. In other words, <strong><em>we do things to improve important measures that have no direct tangible dollar value because those metrics have a proven affect on measures that do.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The takeaway here is that we should <a href=\"http:\/\/briantroy.com\/blog\/2009\/12\/16\/a-simple-prescription-for-social-media-roi\/\">stop trying to assign hard dollar values to Social Media metrics\/measures<\/a> and get busy showing how they affect the hard dollar metrics for your business.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It appears the Social Media ROI conversation is heating up &#8211; and predictably it has split into two camps, the Believers and the Non-Belivers. The non-belivers are adamant that you simply can&#8217;t value conversations. The believers say you can because relationships are valuable. They are both wrong (and right). Let me try to clarify things&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/blogarchive.briantroy.com\/index.php\/2009\/12\/17\/social-media-roi-the-believers-and-non-believers\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Social Media ROI &#8211; The Believers and Non-Believers<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,28],"tags":[237,258,260,286],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogarchive.briantroy.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/626"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogarchive.briantroy.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogarchive.briantroy.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogarchive.briantroy.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogarchive.briantroy.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=626"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogarchive.briantroy.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/626\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogarchive.briantroy.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=626"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogarchive.briantroy.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=626"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogarchive.briantroy.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=626"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}